THE NEXT THOUSAND YEARS
EXTINCTION OF MAN
Geoffrey D. Commons (geoffreycommons@sbcglobal.net)
SUMMARY
METHODOLOGY
INTRODUCTION: THE LAST MILLION YEARS
BIBLIOGRAPHY AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
C. The 21st century is the biological century. Leading the biological revolution will be genetic engineering, including: removal of bad genes, addition of good genes, reduction in premature deaths, and slowing down of the aging process. At the same time, 5-10 points will enhance IQ every century starting in the developed countries (This will increase the gap initially between the have and have not countries.).
D. Productivity will average an amazing 2% per annum over the next 100-200 years. Today’s productivity would be only 2% of productivity in 200 years. Developed countries will have median family incomes exceeding $100,000 by the second half of this century and over $200,000 by the end of the century. By 300 years in the future, average family income would exceed $1 million and economic concerns would have a low level of priority in the developed world. Over 90% of existing jobs will disappear including most jobs in agriculture, manufacturing, construction and the service industries. Warming of the world and increasing ocean levels will be a major problem confronting the second half of this century and the next century. Reduced levels of CO 2 and other gases combined with planting of trees is a solution.
How do you portend the future? Obviously no one can; however, there are techniques. This writer's approach is based upon the primary assumption that man will obtain what he wants with a time element constraint limited by physical laws. Predicting future human behavior may be limited by conflict between rational and irrational behavior. For example, many western societies today oppose cloning. There may also be conflicts as to behavior goals, which differ from east to west and from primitive to developed societies. Societies’ different cultures lead to varying goals.
The layman's approach to predicting the future is often followed by writers’ who typically set out the body of existing knowledge by explaining other writers’ viewpoints and conclusions. Then a consensus of viewpoints within the intellectual community is reached. This methodology established that the world is flat and excludes out-of-the box thinking.
One of the more recent methodologies utilized to forecast the future is scenario construction. Different scenarios of alternative futures are postulated. Conditions of each scenario are specified. The scenarios are evaluated as to probability. There are many limitations to scenario forecasting: adequacy and sufficiency of data, exogenous variables, probability assessment, and drawing of the scenarios.
Most forecasters utilize historic trends analyses. Econometricians use mathematical models. A simple trend analysis is not as powerful as the use of the 2nd derivative (rate of change). With the specification of variables, forecasters are not be able to predict when a trend line will blow up, but they are able to specify the exogenous variables that can break a trend curve or show which endogenous variables could explode the trend. The forecasting of turning points is clearly the most difficult part of trend analysis.
It appears, as will be shown, over the last million years, change has been exponential. For example, if you want to predict 2050, go back to 1950 and see the changes that occurred and then project those changes for the next 50 years. As economists and other professionals found, trends blow up when they reach a turning point. A turning point is when the trend line is violated or reversed. This often occurs with a change in an exogenous variable.
Looking at past history two positive periods are clearly outside of the trend line, the Greek period and the technological revolution of the 1990’s. Negative periods of the trend line would be periods of cold climate and major wars.
Most forecasters believe a turning point is occurring in population growth. The signs for this change are that some nations are losing population and are expected to decline in population over the next 50 years, eg. Japan, Germany and Russia. Most of Europe will also show a decline in population during the 21st century.
Another common method utilized by social scientists in forecasting is to analyze experts’ opinions in their field as to technical or social breakthroughs. Great scientists have often forecast an invention, but not the methodology as to how it would work. In the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries Isaac Newton, Thomas Edison and Albert Einstein were among the greatest innovators.
Other methods of forecasting have also been employed, such as linear extrapolation, morphological method, Delphi method, interlocking matrix, relevance tree, dynamic simulation model and TRIZ, a method of forecasting technological systems evolution (Genrikh Altshuller). Victor R. Fey (1999) states “The Laws of Technological System evolution serve as ‘soft equations’ describing the system’s ‘life curve’ in the evolution space. If configuration of the current system is given, then configurations on the next stages of development can be reliably ‘calculated’ using the system of these laws”.
This represents an advanced step in technological forecasting; however, it is unable to predict major leaps or changes that do not follow logically from the past.
Forecasts fail for many reasons. Trends reverse. Exogenous events occur:. climate change or nuclear war. Other examples would be visitors from space or earth or being struck by a meteorite as occurred 65 million years ago. Forecasting is an art not a science. The forecasts rely heavily upon the past rather than the future; they rely on speed and power, not structures that are capable of realization of the parameters.
The forecasts herein are generally more optimistic than those made by most forecasters. Give human beings power, there will be a battle between good and evil forces. The range of subjects and speed of narrative is breathtaking, but the reader will enjoy an intellectual odyssey of what the future may hold unburdened by the constraints of past writers.
Conclusion--MAN WILL OBTAIN WHAT HE WANTS with a time element constraint limited only by physical laws.
INTRODUCTION: THE LAST MILLION YEARS
1,000,000 to 100,000 Years Ago.
Homo sapiens derived from Homo Heidelbergensis (hh). The oldest evidence of hh is 400,000-500,000 years ago in Africa. Skulls of hh have been found 300,000-400,000 years ago in Greece and 200,000 years ago in Spain. Man further evolved (the estimated rate of change of DNA is three percent per million years) and it wasn’t until 150-200,000 years ago that men were anatomically modern humans. Speech started some 100,000-150,000 years ago, as there was further evolution of the brain and speech mechanisms.
At about the same time there is evidence of human habitations. Homo sapiens didn’t move out of Africa according to the best evidence until some 100,000 years ago. Earlier man, including Neanderthal and Java, moved out of Africa 100,000’s of years earlier.
100,000 to 10,000 Years Ago.
Population may have reached its nadir at less than 25,000 some 70,000 years ago. The possible cause of the population decline was giant volcanic activity followed by the coldest millennia. Between 100,000 and 10,000 years ago people entered Greece (70,000), China (70,000), Australia (60,000) and North America (20,000). Thus by 20,000 years ago humans had dispersed throughout most of the habitable world. One of the major causes of this dispersion was climate change. As the world cooled and warmed, some areas became deserts and other areas became frozen and inhabitants were forced to disperse in order to survive. Major dispersions between continents occurred during ice ages when there were land bridges connecting Asia to North America, England to Europe, Southeast Asia to Indonesia, Borneo, and the Philippines and New Guinea to Australia.
Approximately 25,000 years ago the Neanderthals became extinct, as did to many other precursors of modern man. Neanderthals made tools and had primitive speech. They were more adapted to cold climates than Homo sapiens. The first modern Europeans, from which all Caucasians are descended, can be traced to 45,000 years ago. Very early developments include art (35,000), boats (25-40,000) rudimentary agriculture and textiles (25,000). Full-scale agriculture developed much later, 13,000 years ago in Syria, domesticated plants and villages (11,500) and glazed pottery (10,500). The number of spoken languages probably maximized around 15,000 years ago and has continually declined since that time. At about 40,000 years ago there appears to be a significant increase in cognitive development.
10,000 to 1,000 Years Ago.
Domestication of sheep, goats and later cattle and pigs occurred (7,500-9,000). Horses were ridden more than 8,000 years ago. By 6,000 years ago the horse was widely ridden and this explains major dislocations of peoples/tribes. The precursor of the Indo-European language is Nostratic. The Nostratic language is the precursor to most of the major language groups outside of Eastern Asia, Africa south of the Sahara and the Pacific. Nostratic evolved some 12,000 years ago as the Ice Age waned. The western branch includes Indo-European (whose family includes 50% of the world’s population), Afrasian, and Kartvelian. (J.P. Mallory, 1989) The eastern branch includes Uralic, Altaic and Dravidian. Their original homeland is widely debated; however, a southern Caucasus location is likely. The spread of the Indo-European language was greatly enhanced by the horse. Tribes migrated prior to 6,000 years ago primarily due to changes in climate and after that time because they were driven out by conquering tribes. Today the Indo-European language extends from Northern India through most of Europe. It appears that Indo-European initially developed on the Anatolian plateau of Turkey 8,000-9,000 years ago (an alternative theory has the origin in central Asia 6,000-7,000 years (Colin Renfrew, 1987)). By 3,200 BC both the use of numerals and the development of the wheel had occurred. This allowed for the development of the cart, which greatly affected war and commerce. Around 5,000 years ago there are the first known written stories concerning “The Flood”. Nations were being developed and Egypt was unified by 3000 BC. By 3,000 BC the first alphabet was developed and by 1600 BC the initiation of the Iron Age began. By this time there are major cities in Northern Africa and throughout Asia from China to India and west.
We then have the development of the Greek and Roman empires. Both of these empires would be off of any mathematical grid from an econometric forecasting. Greek developments in government, philosophy, social structure, were not surpassed for thousands of years and the Roman Empire efforts in terms of military power and infrastructure construction was also more similar to empires thousands of years later. Major religions were developed in this period including Christianity and Islam.
1,000 to 100 Years Ago.
Economic and political power shifted from North Africa to Northern Europe. China has its own society mainly isolated from the west except for Genghis Khan (Marco Polo) and his followers in the 12-13th century. Tamerlane was the ruler who killed the most persons ever, an estimated 17 million.
Major economic development was initiated through manufacturing. This led to the development of larger boats, farm equipment, steel mills, and railroads. Later communication was enhanced through electricity and improved transportation. The percent of the population required to farm the land started to decline and an industrial revolution occurred in the western world. Most of the world became subject to the power of a few nation states in Western Europe. Note in each of the above periods, rate of change was essentially exponential.
100 Years Ago to Present.
No discussion is required. However, in the last 100 years, life expectancy increased more than in the past 100,000 years. This is largely due to the eradication of infections diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria and the reduction of starvation, war deaths and dysentery. In the last 25 years of the century in the developed countries aging diseases, such as heart, cancer, stroke and diabetes also have been delayed.. Education and knowledge probably increased by a factor of 10. Communication time and cost were reduced more than 90 percent. We have probably witnessed the last worldwide war; however, certainly not the last war. The developments in physics, chemistry and biology were greater than in all the previous periods. Productivity, which is the basis for economic development, increased in the developed world by an estimated seven times. However, stone-age societies still exist with virtually little change.
In summary, change has occurred not at a steady pace, but at an accelerating pace, apparently almost exponentially over the last 100,000 years. Even if an exponential rate of change were not to occur in the future; the amount of change in the 21st century would vastly exceed the amount of change during the 20th century. Most forecasters use the 2nd derivative as their forecasting tool.
Whether the rate of change has peaked is a subject that needs considerable study (things such as politics, arts, health, economics, technology all have to be factored). The rate of change declined in the world between 1930-50 due to worldwide depression and World War II. It increased after the war but investment and productivity were not as rapid as in earlier years probably due to the cold war and international instability. However, the rate of change appears to have increased during the last 10 years. As productivity has increased, the dangers of world was have been reduced and trade among nations has been enhanced. The middle class more than doubled in the last 10 years and is increasing rapidly throughout much of Asia and other development countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America. New scientific findings and major advances in communications and computers lead most scientists to believe that productivity will remain at a much higher level than it was in the 20th century for the foreseeable future.
This increase in productivity will be further enhanced by the increasing number of technological centers spread throughout the developed and developing world. Note that if productivity were to increase at 2.5 percent annually, an exponential growth rate would occur. Productivity is more likely to grow at two percent annually, resulting in about a seven-fold increase in productivity this century. If this rate were to continue for 2 centuries, today’s productivity would be only 2 percent of what it would be in 2200. It is quite difficult to conceive of a world that would be so different. It is hard to conceive of a world where per capita income would be 50 times today’s in current dollars and less than five percent of existing jobs would remain.
As can be seen from the above, the amount of change, if not the rate of change, is continuing to increase to today. You could create scenarios where the rate change regressed, e.g. nuclear war, major collisions with out-of-space objects, major climatic events, and new and untreatable diseases. However, the likelihood of these events is waning and the ability of man to overcome their adversity is being enhanced. The most likely scenarios of tomorrow are for positive changes much greater than those which most of us project or visualize.
The remainder of this book speculates on the types of changes foreseen. There is a much greater emphasis on the next 100 years since most projection models brake down much beyond that time. The major error will be the failure to identify other changes.
Chapter 1: CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENT AND GEOLOGY
SUMMARY:
The temperature increases most in the northern continental areas of the northern hemisphere.
Partial melting of Greenland and the West Antarctic shelf will lead to a 1-2 foot increase in the sea level, which is more then current predictions.
In the 300-500 year time frame, scientists will learn how to modify climates
And thus climate change is an intermediate, not long-range problem. However, the degradation rate of CO2 takes 10,000 years.
The greatest impact of the world’s warming will be on the Arctic. The Artic ice cap will melt sometime over the North Pole around the year 2050. The Arctic ice cap has been retreating three percent per year since 1980. It is projected that there will be a northwest passage through the Arctic by 2050. This ice retreat is caused by global warming and changes in barometric pressure. Ice thickness has decreased from 10 feet in 1976 to five feet today. The ice thickness is declining four inches per year.
Even in Greenland, the ice cap, which is 14,000 feet thick, is melting. The Greenland ice cap could melt 90 percent in the next 200-300 years, a 10 to 20 foot sea level rise. Such an increase in sea level would wipe-out low coastal areas world-wide such as south Florida, parts of north western Europe, some Pacific Island and part of Bangladesh. The Greenland ice cap has melted in prior interglacial times. The 6,000 foot thick Scandinavian ice cap melted over 500 years ago during the last interglacial period increasing sea level by 10 feet per century. Winter temperatures have already risen five to six degrees C. The North Pole stationary high will disappear. Winds are already shifting from the north to the south. Ocean currents, which used to circulate the North Pole, transverse the North Pole from the Aleutians to east of Greenland. Both salinity and ocean temperatures are changing in the arctic, suggesting changes in ocean circulation systems.
Coincident with the melting of the ice will be increased rain and snow in the Arctic, western Europe and northeastern United States. Much of this ice melts as it moves south. What impact could this have on El Nino and the Gulf Stream?
Winter temperatures have already risen 5-6 degrees C. Melting of the ice occurs more than one week earlier and continues one week longer then 30 years ago. The growing seasons in Canada and Siberia are lengthening. Winds are already shifting from the north to the south. Ocean currents, which used to circulate the North Pole, transverse the North Pole from the Aleutians to east of Greenland. Both salinity and ocean temperatures are changing in the arctic suggesting changes in ocean circulation systems. Coincident with the melting of the ice will be increased rain and snow in the Arctic and Europe. The artic flowing river volumes will increase significantly reducing the salinity of the Arctic Ocean. As the tundra melts this could release stored carbon in the earths’ surface. This could release hundreds of millions of tones of CO2 into the air and would dramatically amplify the warming. The temperatures in the Antarctic have risen by one degree F/decade over the last 30 years. The warming of the Antarctic has been greatest on the peninsula. The melting of the ice may be partially offset by increased rainfall over the glaciers in the Antarctic. The average temperature rise at the poles is 3 times greater than the world wide average. Temperatures are expected to rise 2 degrees C at the equator, 3 degrees C in temperate zones and 5 degrees C at the poles over this century. One reason for this greater rate of increase at the poles is the lower level of pollution at the poles.
The increase in temperatures could make many habitable areas uninhabitable in the summer including most hot desert areas of the world. The growing seasons would also change. The Midwest would be faced with a perennial dust bowl with little summer rain. Temperatures in the corn belt could exceed 95 degrees F. which is above the temperature that corn can sustain. Thus the corn belt could move hundreds of miles north. The growing seasons would expand in Canada and Siberia; however, their soils are poorer then in the Midwest. There would be major dislocation of animal and plant life with many species, particularly in the arctic disappearing.
The West Antarctic ice shelf is also melting; if it were to totally melt the sea level would rise an approximate 30 feet. If the East Antarctic sea shelf were to partially melt, sea level could rise in the 100’s of feet. Sea levels are expected to rise from 1 to 3 feet.
What impact could all this have on El Niño and the Gulf Stream? El Niño’s intensity will increase during the 1st half of the 21st century, but is likely to decline during the 22nd century. El Niño has not always been with us. Its force is the differential in temperature between the northern Pacific and the equator. In the last 40 years the Walker circulation (the Pacific trade winds) have declined over 3.5%. This would increase the frequency of El Nino’s. The Gulf Stream’s current is diluted by lowering of salinity and because of the outpouring of cold water from the melting of the Arctic. As a result northwestern Europe especially and the northeastern U.S. could grow colder and wetter spurning major climate changes. Already rainfall and cold winters are increasing in these areas. However, until the Gulf Stream changes, winters and summers in Europe will be significantly warmer. The increasing rainfall in Eurasia's six largest rivers, which have risen 7% over the last half century, prevents the sinking of the warm salty Gulf Stream waters. Fresh water is less dense than salt water and the northernmost Gulf waters’ sinking has already declined 20% over the last 30 years. The above could result in Western Europe and Northeast North America temperatures declining over 2 degrees. The primary impact will be on Great Britain and those nations on the Atlantic Coast. However, after 50-100 years of declining temperatures, global warming will also transcend to Western Europe also.
The world warms during the 21st century 2-3 degrees C, more by the poles and more during winter than in summer, and more over the continents than in the oceans. But not only do temperatures change, but so does precipitation. Increased precipitation in one area can result in either too little or too much precipitation in another area. This will be one of the biggest political issues of the 22nd century. Wide areas of the world will suffer increased drought and other areas torrential rains. There will be an increase in the number and severity of cyclonic storms, particularly in shall seas such as the Caribbean The reduction of jungle areas in the world will also have impacts on climates. Most primary jungles will disappear, except in limited protected areas, by 2050. This will result in a major worldwide replanting effort in 2050-2100. The leaders in this effort are projected to be China, Brazil and India. China has already initiated the greatest tree planting effort ever.
As the world heats up and energy use increases, CO2 will increase. It is estimated
that CO2 will maximize around 2075 as world politicians adopt strong anti CO2 policies and as the economy switches from oil to hydrogen fuels. A CO2 tax to support CO@ reduction is the most likely worldwide policy. All coal plants will be made gasified and automobile emissions will go close to zero as alternative fuels replace gas and diesel. However, this will be offset by reductions in pollution in major urban centers. Scientists had greatly underestimated the cooling impact of pollution. When Mount Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, temperatures around the world declined more than 1 degree Fahrenheit for one year. After 9-11, the elimination of air flights for three days in the United States, resulted in a warming effect. The combination of decreased urban pollution combined with increased CO2 could abet temperature increase in the world.
The impacts of the warming of the world are much more dramatic than originally
believed; not so much on temperature, but on precipitation, ocean currents and
Barometric pressure. There will be a significant increase both in number and intensity of cyclonic storms. These storm tracks will also extend further north to Tokyo and New York City.
Climate is a chaotic system and scientists will attempt to unravel the effects of
turbulence on the system. Climate control is initiated this century, but becomes
significant in the following centuries despite the major political upheavals.
The number of storms globally is dependent upon, among other factors, the temperature change between the pole and the equator. As the Arctic ice cap melts and the north shows a greater rise in temperature than the equator, the temperature difference will reduce. This will result in a decline in mid-latitude storms. However, with the warming of the world, moisture in the atmosphere will increase resulting in increased storm intensity. On the West Coast of North America, precipitation should increase due to more enhanced El Niño conditions. The jet stream will be moved further south, the Aleutian low will strengthen and the Pacific high will weaken. Together, along with warmer sea temperatures both the number and severity of storms on the West Coast will increase. These storms will both penetrate further inland and further south. However, water runoff will decline an estimated 25% because of a decrease in the snow line of 500-1,000 feet. An increase in the reservoir system in the western United States will be required to capture excess rainfall in wet years to provide for the drought periods. There will also become available significant salt water conversion plants in desert areas.
The warming of the world will have significantly greater impacts on the northern hemisphere than the southern since most land is north of the equator and land heats up faster than water. Some areas will have greater precipitation and others will have less even though overall precipitation will increase. Another impact of the warming climate will be the melting of the glaciers. Already temperate zone glaciers in many countries have declined by 50%. Glaciers in Glacier National Park may disappear over the next 50 years. The melting of temperate zone glaciers will only affect ocean levels a few inches. The main concern is Antarctica and to a lesser extent Greenland. Large ice shelves have calved in the Antarctic. The ice sheets are expected to decline substantially, particularly on the Western shelf of Antarctica. However, the calving of these ice sheets has no impact on ocean levels. The melting of the ice sheets will be accompanied by a dramatic surge of ocean glaciers.
Chapter 2: TECHNOLOGIES AND SCIENCE
Biotechnology
The 21st century will be known as the Biological century. There will be major technological breakthroughs both in humans and materials. Composite materials will be stronger, lighter, tougher and less expensive than then natural resources. Major areas where new materials will replace natural resources are in construction and transportation. Natural resources to be replaced include both wood and metal products. Self-replicating ones will be used for building of cities, particularly in extreme environments. Nanotechnology will lead manufacturing growth in the United States with total worldwide manufactured value exceeding $5 trillion by 2025.
Genetics and health
Genetic diseases will essentially be eliminated in newborn children in the developed world during the next 25-50 years. This will be only the beginning of genetic amplifications for future man. Life span will increase 20 years during this century and 20 years each of the subsequent centuries for an undetermined period of time. The Guardian LTD reported on November 18, 2005 in an article by Ian Sample, science correspondent, that a genetic experiment to unlock the secrets of the ageing process has created organisms (single cell) that lived 5 to 6 times their normal lifespan. The methodology was essentially to force the cells into an “extreme survival mode”. Thus rather than growing and aging the organism became resilient to damage and was better able to repair itself. The implications for humans (experiments are more than 10 years away) is not that we will be able to extend life by 6 times; however, we could slow down the DNA damage we accumulate as we age, and that could protect us from cancer and heart disease. The sequencing of an organism’s genomes will provide a map and models that will provide quantitative prediction of biological system behavior and will assist in furthering future research.
By 2025 an AIDS vaccine will be developed. New vaccines to fight viral infections will also be developed. Early detection of cancer will occur. In the next 15-20 years drug therapies will be targeted specifically at tumors. Nanoshell diagnosis and treatment of soft tissue cancer will take place. For example, in the next ten years there will be enhanced medical imaging and drug delivery will be through cell walls Organs will be grown. Cartilage and skin will be replaced. New materials will replace some organs and body parts. Brain implants will treat paralysis and blindness.
Significant progress will be made in both changes to lifestyle and in genetics to slow the aging process and to improve mental health and cognitive abilities. This will be the focus of medicine in subsequent centuries as most premature death diseases are eliminated. Micro control chips modify abnormal human behavior. The improved health of people will result in all track and field records being broken. New sports will be designed which combine athleticism, gamesmanship and intelligence.
Communication
Communications will take further great leaps. Meetings will be held with virtual reality communications with the participants located anywhere in the world. The hand held telephone will become obsolete. Digital will totally replace analog. The cell phone will be the hand held computer and will include all visual communications, such as meetings, movies, television, live concerts, etc. The PC of today will be the size of thumbnail by 2025 and a grain of sand by 2050. By 2050 the computer and the brain will be linked. A country’s economic growth rate will be influenced by its communication skill quotient.
Energy
Hydrogen will replace oil and gas as the primary fuel source in the first quarter of the century and dominate in the second half of the century. As coal and fossil fuel plants are phased out, they will be replaced by renewable power sources such as wind, solar and geothermal and by small nuclear power plants. Coal will be phased out as a primary power source around 2050. In the interim, coal plants will become much more environmentally sensitive with most of the CO2 eliminated. Clean coal technology is with us now and significant further improvements are on the way. Until there is a less costly method of generating electricity then natural gas, it will not be practicable to eliminate coal. Thus improvements in coal technology are essential. Nuclear energy (or fusion) will become cost-effective during the same time frame. Alternative energy sources will provide 10-20% of electric power demand by 2025. High efficiency will cost fuel cells will emerge before 2020 and eventually hydrogen will become the primary fuel source after 2050 as the technology to build efficient water to hydrogen plants is designed in the first quarter of the century. One of the greatest sources of additional energy will be by conservation. Energy for appliances and lighting will be reduced 50% or more per unit of output by 2025-50. Advanced building materials and building design will further reduce heating and cooling requirements in the same time frame by 50%. For automobiles, there will be a switch to hybrid fuels using ethanol mix with gasoline during the first quarter of a century while hydrogen fuels are developed. During this decade ultra-long lasting rechargeable batteries will be developed enhancing the electric vehicle. Vast water reservoir systems will be developed as change in weather patterns creates new areas of drought and water surplus. Also large desalination plants will become economical as efficient filters to purify seawater are designed this decade. . These developments will become particularly necessary in areas dependent on melting snow for rivers as the snow level declines 1000-2000 feet.
Agriculture and Labor
Developed countries will continue to see manufacturing and service jobs shift to developing countries. Developing countries will see manufacturing jobs lost to robotics. . Productivity will grow at 2% for most of the century making many of today’s jobs obsolete. This will force major changes in labor market relations. Jobless economic growth is a long-term reality. However, this will be offset in part by a declining workforce and the population grays. Also productivity will result in the replacement not only of routine jobs but also of higher paying jobs. When desalinization becomes economically feasible, vast desert areas adjoining the oceans will become tomorrow’s food basket. Major changes in agriculture are foreseen. There will be the development of many new crops. Existing crops will have seeds developed for different climate zones and soil types. Agriculture becomes more immune to climate and production in many countries increases four fold. There will be a multi fold increase in layered hot houses. The trend toward healthy life styles will result in major changes to the food processing and fast food industries. Fast food industries will become much more automated and healthy.
Chapter 3: HUMAN MAN AND FUTURE MAN
Summary
A. Man will become like the Neanderthal within 1000 years. He will be replaced by Superion, who will be multi-species.
B. Average life span of man will increase 20 years per century.
C. Not only will man live longer, he will be smarter, healthier and without psychological and physical defects.
A. Superion
Neanderthals lived from about 200,000 to 30,000 years ago. The last Ice Age forced the Neanderthal to migrate further south in Europe and basically the Ice Age was the primary cause of the dying out of the species. Homo Sapiens also lived in Europe since about 100,000 years ago. They were also devastated by the Ice Ages but survived in small colonies primarily in Southern France and the Black Sea area.
There is no reason to believe that Man will also not be replaced by a superior species. Without genetic technology this might take millions of years; however, with the advancement of science it is likely to occur within the next 1,000-3,000 years. What will be the differences between Man and Superion? Superion will be multi species. As Man inhabits space, Man will find himself improperly constructed. Some planets will have atmospheres hostile to man; other planets will have gravity levels either much greater or lesser than the earth’s . Man will create new species to adapt to these hostile environments to Man. These species will be Superion 1, 2, 3…n. Also, an advanced specie (Superion) will be engineered for life on earth. He will be vastly superior to Man in terms of brain function and longevity. He will also be engineered more efficiently with superfluous parts eliminated and other organs or parts better designed and replaceable. Superion will eliminate today’s essentially negative genes. Mutation will be replaced by genetic manipulation.
Politicians and churches cannot stop the above from occurring. There will always be some country or people that want to go forward. We can slow progress, but we cannot stop progress. Some events that may precede this development include selective breeding and genetic engineering. Already there are gene banks of superior persons, both eggs and sperm. This trend will greatly increase during the coming century. As success on earth totally shifts from brawn to brain, brainpower, which is an inherited trait, will have an ever-increasing value.
B. Existing Man
The average life span will exceed 100 years of age in developed countries by the 22nd century. The life span will increase 20 years per century for the foreseeable future. During this century, much premature death will be eliminated and the seeds will be sown for slowing the aging process. In the following centuries the aging process will be slowed and more and more parts restored. During the 20th century, as infectious diseases were cured, the average life span increased three months per year for men and four months per year for women. This trend continued and did not slow down during the second half of the 20th century. Death rates from heart attacks and stroke were delayed. The life span of people with some forms of cancer and diabetes were greatly extended. These trends will continue through the 21st century.
Additionally, defective genes that make individuals prone to certain diseases, will be eliminated. There will be further organ transplants, which will also extend life. In Japan, the official forecast for life expectancy in the year 2050 is 90 years. This puts a real crimp on the incorrect concept that longevity has a narrowly defined limit.
During the 21st century, heart and artery diseases will be both delayed and cured; cartilage will be replaced and repaired; most genetic defects in developed countries will be eliminated by the year 2050. Initially, cancer cure rates will be increased through more advanced detection systems. Later, cancer will be treated by more powerful medications and gene technology. Gene technology, during this century, will focus on replacing defective genes and eliminating injurious genes. Already human stem cells have been cloned. Subsequently, technology will focus on development of positive genes. Advances in the material sciences will result in replacement parts for the heart, lungs, kidneys, knees, ligaments, joints etc.
Proteins can make anything, and that is just what the material scientists will do. The diversity of materials that will be used will range from polymers, elastomers, glues, alloys to ceramics, composites and glass. The result will be stronger, lighter, variable and more resilient materials. Thus the material advances of the 21st century will have a major impact not only on material sciences such as construction but also on humans.
Aging will be slowed in the 21st century. Already, science has taken the initial strides in detecting the influence of free radicals on cell destruction. This is resulting in many persons changing their diets and increasing their exercise and thus their life expectancies.
Current scientific research indicates that aging in animals can be reversed. Basically, aging is in the genes. If a person changes his or her genes, he or she can change aging. Each time a cell divides, the telomere is shortened. When the telomere becomes too short, death follows. All science has to do is either replace the telomere or slow down or reduce the shortening process. Today’s potential estimated life span of 120-130 years is rarely accomplished. In order to increase life span beyond 120-130 years, the aging process will need to slowed or reversed. It is expected that someone born this century will live to be 200 years of age.
Not only will gene technology be used to eliminate premature death, but it also will be used to curtail psychological diseases. This will reduce criminal rates. Gene technology will also be used to increase intelligence. Why if one person has an IQ of 140, cannot all persons have an IQ of 140? Why, if one person has an IQ of 180, cannot all persons have an IQ of 180?
Why, if one person has a photographic or phonographic memory, cannot all persons have photographic and phonographic memories? Why can’t we replicate the brain of a great surgeon or pianist? We can and will. The mind functions like an analog computer, not a digital computer. We have switched to a digital world, rather than analog, since it is more efficient. Computers still don’t have the memories of brains, but within a decade or two, that type of memory will be available on a typical desktop computer. But memory is but one element. With analog method of thinking, the brain functions based upon pattern recognition. Today we have identified fourteen orders of pattern recognition (Michael Commons). Pattern recognition is like a bell shaped curve for humans. If an idiot recognizes 7 patterns, the average person would recognize 10. Way less than 1% of persons would recognize 13 or 14 patterns. For each pattern, conceive of a stack of neurons located in the brain. It is believed that education can increase pattern recognition by up to one unit. Are there further patterns, which will be discovered? This no one can state; however, if history were a guide, new elements were found and created. In order to understand the magnitude of an increase of even one pattern per person in the world, the easiest way to conceive this would be the difference in people living in Africa south of the Sahara and Western Europe. It is not that West Europeans are smarter than Africans. It is they have technology and education. Power will shift to those people with the highest pattern recognition. Today , in America the vast majority of people are living based upon pattern recognition of 10 or less. Not all these gains will be shared among all people. Survival will depend upon attainment. Their productive and creative prowess will dwarf the great accomplishments of today. These changes will not occur dramatically. Like the extension of life, there will be serial progress every century.
One theory is that “A new MolSID system (nano technology)” will be developed which will allow any person ‘to upload to their brain’ any information or technique used in problem solving. Thus one sitting at a Learning Center will allow you to learn ‘lingua franca’, calculus, or forecast the 8th race at Santa Anita. Is there a limit to IQ? Probably not. We will design brains with enhanced abilities on both the left and right sides. Not only will our comprehension increase, but our artistic abilities will also be enhanced. Our reasoning abilities will also be enhanced. Learning levels include: formal, systematic, metasystematic and paradigmatic. Each stage represents an approximate standard deviation increase in intelligence. Most persons are not able to perform at even the formal level. Very few can perform at the paradigmatic level. In the future all will be able to do so. (Four Post Formal Stages, Michael Commons, 2002). Education will also take advantage of increased learning abilities. Memory machines, computers and modeling techniques, not in existence today, will enhance and deepen the learning experience. Enhanced intelligence will have significant impacts on the world. Robots and machines will replace most motor jobs. Most people will become multi-lingual with English becoming the global lingua franca.
As gene technology is able to affect peoples’ looks, woman will become more beautiful and man more handsome. Sex will become safe again with prostitution becoming one of the major growth industries of this century. Eventually, all men and women would be able to have sex with the person of their dreams.
Geoffrey Commons <geoffreycommons@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
EVOLUTION AND STAGE OF PERFORMANCE
Geoffrey David Commons
[article and URL forthcoming 2008 in World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution]
Chapter 4: ECONOMICS
Summary
Economic growth rates this century will exceed most expectations. This will occur for the following primary reasons:
O productivity rates will be higher this century than the previous century
O defense spending declines as war in the world declines
O 2 billion increase in middle-income persons
O major increase in international trade
O reduction in transfer technology time
O decline in transportation and communication costs
World Economic Growth
China will have the largest economy, followed by India, the United States and Japan. China’s purchasing power per capita will exceed the United States by 2020. By 2050, Asia’s economy’s purchasing power will exceed the combination of Europe plus North America.
Almost all countries in the world will become developing countries by 2050. Some of the stronger East European and Asian countries will join the developed economies by the same time. Asia will have 3 of the top 5 countries in terms of GDP by the middle of the century. This will coincide with all the largest 10 metropolitan areas in terms of population being in the developing world. China will have the largest economy by 202 in terms of purchasing power. (The Economist, April 1, 2006) Today only one quarter of China is in the development phase. The United States will drop to second and India will be third with less than 50% of the purchasing power of the top 2. India’s growth has been primarily in the south and west. Japan will be fourth with less than 50% the purchasing power of India. In the second quarter of this century, Asia’s purchasing power will excel the combined total of Europe + North America. Not only will economic growth shift from the west to the east, but so will research, technology and innovation. Asia will dominate in telecommunications and information systems, manufacturing and development, construction and development of materials. In the second quarter of the century, Brazil will surpass any European nation. Russia will also pass the other West European nations. By the 2050 the United States will only rank 3rd with India surpassing the U.S. in GNP. China will be the largest user of automobiles by 2050 and producer of automobiles by the 2nd half of the century.
The disparity in wealth between the poor and the rich countries will actually increase during the next 100 years. GNP growth in the developed countries should average 2-2.5% annually, in the developing countries 5-6% and in the underdeveloped only 1%. However as mid century approaches fewer and fewer countries will not be developing. In the last half of the 20th century large areas of Latin America and Asia joined the developing countries and this trend will continue. However, AIDS, education and war will provide bottlenecks for much of Africa. More than 50% of the world will be in the developing country category by 2025 compared to only 10% in 1980. Abject poverty (income of less than $1/day) will decline in the world from 20% in the year 2000 to 10% by 2025. Thus some of the countries in Africa will join Asia and most of Latin America in entering the developing phase. Wages are estimated to increase to $10/day by 2025 and to $20/day by 2050. Inflation rates will remain low due to high levels of productivity and world trade. Employment problems will persist worldwide.
The world can be divided into thirteen economic regions:
Asia
Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos)
Africa
Europe
Americas
Pacific
The fastest world economic growth rates will be in areas 1-3. The slowest economic growth rates will be in areas 5-7.
GDP/capita forecasts for 2100 based upon current GDP United Nations statistics are:
Country 2003 2025 2100
United States $37,000 $75,000 $250,000
Japan $33,000 $75,000 $250,000
Germany $25,000 $40,000 $200,000
United Kingdom $30,000 $60,000 $225,000
Mexico $ 6,000 $25,000 $150,000
Brazil $ 3,000 $12,000 $100,000
China* $ 1,200 $10,000 $250,000
Philippines $ 1,000 $ 4,000 $ 30,000
India $ 700 $ 4,000 $ 80,000
Congo $ 100 200 $ 5,000
*China’s currency is artificially very low and in terms of purchasing power parity, China already is 40% of U.S., and GNP will pass U.S. circa 2025. In terms of per capita purchasing power, China will also exceed the U.S. before the end of the century.
Developed Countries
Productivity in the United States is estimated to exceed 2% annually during this century. The highest productivity rate will be during the first quarter of the century. There will be a major change in jobs. More than 25% of existing jobs will be lost by 2050. These will be replaced by jobs that do not exist today. Job losses will occur due to two principal factors: (a) shift in manufacturing from high labor cost countries to low labor cost countries and (b) increase in productivity which results in fewer employees turning out the same amount of work Major job declines will occur in manufacturing and non-skilled labor. Robotics will replace humans in manufacturing, fast foods, which will become automated, lawyers, who will be eliminated by judicial system reforms, sales agents, who will be eliminated by the internet, prison guards, bureaucrats, stockbrokers, insurance salesmen, programmers, secretaries, farm workers etc. Job increases will include research, technology transfer, design, paralegal, medical, oceanography and biotechnology etc.
Major recessions and inflationary periods will become eliminated. That does not mean that there will not be a business cycle. The computer has eliminated large inventory swings. The computer and technology have also eliminated for the most part supply gluts. When demand increases, production rates will self correct. The globalization of the world’s economies will also result in less major downturns and upturns in economies. Regional and international cooperation will increase enhancing healthy economic growth. Economic and trade policies of the developed world will be modified from protectionist to assisting developing countries’ nascent industries. Most of the assistance will be in the form of education, health care, stability and democratic institutions. These factors will contribute substantially to the higher growth rates forecast for developing countries. One of the major industries for developing countries will be biological manufacturing based upon renewable products. Biological manufacturing requires minimal capital and limited technical educations and raw materials.
Throughout the world English will become the language of business. The day of the large horizontal and vertical companies will be limited as communication costs decline from 10% to 1% of business costs.
The most rapidly growing companies will be high tech niche companies who are the best in their field. The large metal manufacturing companies of coal, steel etc will be replaced by biological firms producing high strength low weight inexpensive materials and by nano-technology firms.
Most business meetings will exclude expensive and time-consuming air travel but will be conducted simultaneously by various connected sites. More business will be conducted from homes and this will result in housing design change. Changes in the construction industry include new materials and construction methods.
Education will also become a more efficient industry only after major political strife concerning reform.
Chapter 5: POLITICS AND LAW
Biological, nuclear and drug terrorism by rogue nations; terrorist groups and drug cartels force the world to unite militarily to combat these threats. This leads to rogue nations being banned from the world order by 2025. China will play a lead role supported by India in this action.
As the threat to world peace increases, nationalism will diminish. Already nationalism in major areas of the world is declining. The development of trading groups such as the European Union is a trend for this century. Trade groups will diminish as world economies become one.
The United Nations will have to modify its political structure before its effectiveness will improve. The United Nations power structure was basically designed in a post World War II cold war environment that no longer exists. New permanent members of the Security Council, but without a veto, should include India, Brazil and Japan and subsequently Nigeria and Indonesia.
Terrorism will be a major problem, particularly in developing countries where the threat of terrorism halts economic growth. This will require major expenditures on education, job training and health systems.
B. FREE MARKET ECONOMICS
Government’s role as a provider of services from the Post Office to utilities and transportation continues to decline throughout the century. The number of government employees will also decline due to productivity and to decreases in military forces. The corporation, as a form of business, will continue to evolve. Multi-national corporations will have increased social awareness. Corruption in developing countries will decline quite rapidly as economic growth is retarded. Corrupt companies and countries will not be able to compete with efficient organizations.
C. Legal System
The legal systems method of resolving disputes will be totally redesigned this century. Juries will rarely, if ever, decide civil disputes. Mediation, with strong precedent guidelines, coupled with binding arbitration will emerge. The users of the legal system, rather than the taxpayer, will bear the cost.
On the criminal side of the ledger, prison populations in the United States will decline in excess of fifty percent this century. The greatest reduction will be in drug addicts who will be treated rather than incarcerated. Incarceration, as a punishment for anti-social behavior, will be replaced with more effective measures. Criminal acts will diminish as poverty declines. Society will prefer to spend limited tax dollars on education rather than prisons. With a world full of so much change, there will remain great stress, and crime will not be eradicated, but it will be reduced. A further contributing factor to the reduction of crime will be a more effective and productive police force with effective high gear technology. Capital punishment will end in the United States between before 2025.
Chapter 6: ENERGY TRANSPORTATION
ENERGY & WARMING OF THE WORLD
WORLD ENERGY USE
Based upon a 1.5% increase in world energy use annually, energy usage will double by the middle of the century and quadruple by the end of the century. The best forecasts show that there is little room for any significant increase in hydroelectric or natural gas power plants. Thus most of the increase in power plants will have to come from alternative energy sources, nuclear power and coal. Although substantial increases in alternative energy power plants will occur, it is unlikely that alternative sources can make up for more than 10-20% of increased demand. Nuclear power, given higher energy costs, is becoming more competitive. However, political problems concerning safety, terrorism and accidents are making it unlikely that nuclear power will play a major role. Currently one sixth of the world’s power comes from an aging 440 reactors, which must be replaced. Thus the primary source of new power this century is most likely coal, which is the dirtiest of all power sources. In the second half of the century headway will be made toward hydrogen replacing depleting energy sources such as coal, oil and gas.
ENERGY IMPACTS ON ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS
Over the past 400,000 years, CO2 levels remained at between 180 and 280 parts per million (ppm). The lower levels coincided with ice ages and the higher levels with warmer periods. By 1958, Co2 increase from 315 and by 2005 to 380 ppm. This is a level that has not be seen for at least 650,000 years. Daniel Schrag, a renown scientist, has stated that a level of 550 ppm is the lowest reasonable strategy for this century. The last time the world witnessed that level was in the Eocene when palm trees were in Wyoming and crocodiles in the arctic and the Antarctic was a coniferous forest.
RISING SEA LEVELS DUE TO INCREASES IN CO2.
Most estimates are for less than a one-foot increase in sea level this century. The weather is working against these sanguine predictions. At the end of the last ice age, for example, 12,000-14,000 years ago, sea levels rose 10 feet/decade as the North American ice sheet among others broke off. Harvard magazine June 2006, p 42. The melting of the West Antarctic ice shelf and of Greenland could increase substantially in the second half of this century resulting in a much more rapid rise in ocean levels then previously believed.
CO2 SOLUTION
The most effective short term solution would be to clean up coal. The two easiest solutions, since they are technically feasible today are coal gasification and the burying of the CO2. In a coal gasification power plant, the coal is gasified in extreme heat and creates a gas (sygas) that is mostly hydrogen and carbon monoxide. The syngas is burned in a turbine to generate electricity and the hot exhaust is then used to create steam (ibid, p. 46). The process is about 15% more efficient then conventional coal power plants, but about 25% more expensive. Perhaps the World Bank could finance the extra cost of the coal gasification and thus reduce significantly the increase in CO2 this century. The second method is to bury the CO2. There are two methods of burial. The first way is to use the CO2 to be pumped underground to enhance oil recover. The second way is to pump the CO2 under high pressure and low temperature 10,000 feet into the ocean where it would eventually disove (Ibid p. 47, Daniel Schrag). The amount of CO2 to be pumped is a staggering 10 billion tons.
TRANSPORTATION
Automobiles:
This century will see the end of the gasoline driven vehicle. Initially dual power sourced vehicles will be developed. By the second half of the century hydrogen powered vehicles will predominate. Dual powered vehicles will still remain however, with electric driven vehicles on automated freeways and hydrogen-powered vehicles on the streets. The freeways will become the power source, rather than the vehicle. Collision avoidance systems will first be developed for freeway travel and subsequently for streets. Onboard computers will provide steering, mapping and collision avoidance. They will also be used to maximize engine efficiency. The metal engines, steel and aluminum, will be replaced by ceramic engines. Fuel efficiency will be assisted through vehicle design. Overall vehicle weight will decline by 75% and vehicle efficiency will increase to 100 miles per gallon. Automobiles will be designed to parallel park—you drive your vehicle adjoining the parking space and then your vehicles slides into that space.
Trucks:
Container trucks will dominate. Major changes will arise in truck engines and fuel type. Hydrogen will dominate fuels. Diesel fuel will be banned around 2025. Similar systems abet efficiency, such as collision avoidance, automated freeways, truck-only roadways and lighter engines.
Railroads:
The integration of truck containers and freight trains continues. Automated trains and stations will be designed, particularly for freight operations. There will be high-speed trains of 200 MPH on all continents, except Antarctica.
Air:
Hypersonic aircraft, mach 4-5 will be used for transoceanic flights. All destinations will be no more than 4-8 hour flights. However, growth in air transportation will be more for personal travel than business purposes. Air transportation in the business world will be significantly reduced by telecommunications via high-fidelity virtual reality networks. VTOL will bypass the need for the automobile in many areas after 2050. This will result in a major overhaul of the air traffic control system. The advances in air traffic control system and automated flight paths combined with collision avoidance and automated landing systems will greatly enhance the use of these vehicles. Personal airplanes are initiated by 2003. By 2010 major research in the personal aircraft development is led by the automobile manufacturers. After 2050 personal airplane development surpasses automobile sales due to the above advances + lighter materials and advanced propulsion systems. Lighter and stronger materials replace existing materials in aircraft manufacture. Fuel cells will replace jet fuel as the primary power source. Super large and efficient air cargo aircraft will be developed. Commercial space travel will be initiated within our solar system.
Space:
There are multi proposed rocket designs to approach the speed of light, the presumed maximum speed. (Principles of Future Rockets.)
Interstellar ramjet rocket: fusion by gathering hydrogen atoms.
An interstellar ramjet rocket would harvest the rarefied hydrogen atoms between fixed stars to cause a fusion reaction to propel the rocket. Such fusion would produce an acceleration of 1 G, eventually causing the rocket to reach near light speed. The type of rocket is regarded, potentially, as an ideal means of transportation between stars. This was originally proposed by Robert Bussard. However, in space there is a limited supply of hydrogen. Kelly Starks proposed a multi-cycle Ram Augmented Interstellar Ramjet. It would scoop up reaction mass, but would only use it as reaction mass, not fuel.
Beamed power or anti-matter:
Another concept of Stark is beamed power (or fuel launchers) They eliminate the need for the space ship to carry the enormous fuel quantities. Whether it is used for science fiction or further into the future, anti-matter or the conversion of mass into energy is 100’s of times more powerful than fusion. This would make starship travel simpler and more practical. We would still have to overcome the reality that stars are hundreds and thousands of years from us. What would happen is a star’s planet system is settled and then from that star, migrants are sent to other star systems and so forth. Embryos might be suspended or frozen for hundreds, if not thousands, of years.
Photon rocket: the use of reactions between matter and antimatter:
The photon rocket would use reactions between matter and antimatter to produce light and light would be used to propel the rocket. The photon rocket was the 1935 brainchild of the German space pioneer, Eugene Saenger. Development problems are significant, despite the theoretical base.
However, even at the speed of light, we will be limited for the foreseeable future to travel within our galaxy since the closest galaxy to ours is 2.2 million light years away. However, as the speed of light is approached, man can travel to another galaxy almost instantaneously, but if he returned to earth it would be millions of years later.
ARTIFICIAL SYSTEMS:
Artificial intelligence and Von Neumann machines are a perquisite for interstellar space travel. The systems have to be capable of initiating and making repairs to vehicles and instruments without direction by Mission Control. Subsequent developments need to include systems designed to locate raw materials and manufacture the technology and equipment needed for Superion survival.
BOATS:
Larger, faster and safer passenger and freight vessels are designed. As trade increases multi-fold, ports are increasingly sophisticated in design and automation to handle the 500-1000% increase in traffic.
REFLECTION.
The warming of the world is occurring primarily from three causes:
O cutting of forests, particularly jungle forests
O energy pollution, primarily coal
O transportation, primarily fuel
Focusing on the three above problems can best solve the warming of the world problem. In energy, the solution appears to be subsidize coal gasification plants and to bury the CO2 which remains. In transportation, the solution is to switch from CO2 emitting fuels to alternative power sources. In addition increased energy and fuel efficiency technologies need to be promoted such as been done successfully by the California Energy Commission, which has saved rate payers in California Tens of Billions in reduced fuel costs.
Chapter 7: AGRICULTURE
In the 20th century major gains occurred in temperate agriculture through
improved seeds, machinery and fertilization. These agricultural methods cost
more than tropical countries could afford.
In the 21st century major gains will
occur in tropical agriculture through genetic engineering and the introduction of
heartier crops that can survive harsher tropical climate conditions. One major advance will be crops utilizing their own nitrogen for the tropics as soybeans do in temperate regions. There will also be expanded agricultural production in
Canada and Siberia as the arctic climates become more equable.
Food processing will continue to change. Almost all grain, fruit, vegetable and
husbandry production will be genetically altered. Food processing will also
provide a greater variety of tastes. There will be major expansion of fish farms, natural and man-made. There will also be development of bacteria generated food
similar to the fermentation process applied in the production of beer. High yield,
low manpower agricultural/industrial production will result.
Another development would be the creation of bacteria, which could break down cellulose. Cows and sheep eat cellulose but they use bacteria for digesting. As the world declines in population, agriculture will represent a shrinking economic
requirement to the developed world and not constitute a problem in the late 21scentury and beyond.
Development of micro organisms will have wide ranging benefits, from
reduction of pollution to the engineering of new species of algae. The planted algae in the ocean would be harvested and would soak up CO2. This is an old idea of J.B.S. Haldane, the originator of genetic engineering.
Chapter 8: SOCIAL, ETHICS AND RELIGION
Religion
Theology will decrease in developed countries Christianity declines, particularly Catholicism, Lutheranism and Presbyterianism. This decline has already occurred in Western Europe. Religion will play a less important role as longevity increases. The nature and role of religion will also change to be more relevant to life than to death. In the United States there will be a growing awareness of the relationship of our constitution with the ten Bill of Rights, to Christianity and its belief in Jesus, combined with the ten Commandments.
Eastern religions increase in the West, particularly Islam and Taoism.
New theologies emerge which unite technology and ethics. In the developing
world, Christianity (born again) and Islam will increase.
Family and Life
Dating, mating and relating will become much more scientific. Choices will be broadened greatly, and initial dates and meetings will be on the Internet.. Once video comes into play this will increase geometrically. Contract marriages will be legalized and lifetime marriages will be the oddity, not the norm.
Life insurance diminishes starting in 2010 and all but term life insurance
disappears by the end of this century as the average life span will approach 100 years.
Medical insurance becomes available in segments: (a) protection--compulsory (b)
diagnostic (c) treatment --terminal and non-terminal problems. The cost of medical care in the last year of life will be reduced this century by 50% and by next century 90%.
A New Calendar
A new calendar is initiated: 13 months with four weeks each. Sunday starts each month. New Years is a non-day. Every 4th year, New Year’s is two days (leap year). The
first month of each year will be called Primary.
Chapter 9: Communication and Language
Communication
The 20th century saw rapid growth in communication. Television, movies, radio
and telephone. Productivity was so great that rotary telephones were invented
during the century and became a collectible at the end of the century. Phones were fast becoming wireless. Telephones will be audio-visual during this century.
The computer and E-mail dominated the last decade of the 20th century. E-
mail growth regular mail started to decline and letter writing will also become a lost art. The vast expansion of the computer and its capabilities allowed for the transmission
of unheralded amounts of data and information. The computer supplanted the
library as a source of information. Hard copy will become obsolete. One computer
stores more information than most of the world's great libraries store today. The
computer this century will transform education, work and technology. The increases in productivity this century will be greatly aided by access to vast amounts of data and the ability to interpret the data. Clearly, your ability to access the computer and its information will play an increasing role in your success.
Language
By 2100, English will be a worldwide language, read and spoken by over 80 percent of all people. English will dominate science, commerce and journalism. English is
already a lingua franca with words of most languages and particularly Germanic,
Romance and Greek. As genetic engineering increases, man's bilingual ability is
enhanced. Many persons will be conversant in 10-50 languages. Other major
language will not die; however, many smaller ones, as in the 20th century, will
die. Latin script will dominate all languages and Cyrillic and Chinese scripts will
phase out. Note that English and Chinese have the same isolating-analytic
structure (which uses word order in expressing syntactic relations). As man's
ability to learn becomes enhanced; his learning skills will also be enhanced. Thus
many people will be conversant in 10-50 languages. More and more, English
will incorporate foreign words and phrases as English become the universal
language. Thus in the long run, English will integrate with other languages, like
Pilipino in the Philippines, which is a mixture of Tagalog and English. Similar
mixed languages, particularly spoken ones, will develop in many societies.
Chapter 10: ART, MUSIC, SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT
The art world, since 1950, has moved from France and Europe to the U.S. Jackson Pollack began this trend. With this movement the art world exploded and literally hundreds of new forms of art such as multi-media, shock art, pop art, and others developed. This trend is expected to continue and accelerate in the 21st century and will
envelop art forms and entertainment. The next takeover of the art world will be by the East. This movement is already occurring and will speed up as the century progresses. Great values are predicted for the fine antiquities of China and Japan particularly. However, Asian art in general, will increase in value significantly faster than western art.
Entertainment will also increase in diversity and availability. Not only will there be
massive media showings, but also live entertainment will continue, particularly in music
and the new art forms. The big 3three networks become 20 or 50. Networks
become international as does programming.
Most entertainment will include a price element. The communication link will be inexpensive; access will become reasonable because of large audience participatation.
Entertainment and media:
The buzzword is "convergence”. Your cell phone will include a DVD, computer, stereo and the internet.
Broadcasting content:
TV anchor news will all but disappear, along with the big three networks. Decentralization of content will be king.
Telecommunications:
Convergence again. E-commerce and the telephone merge and communications will be everywhere for anyone both verbal and visual.
Music:
There will be new outlets, more artists and new laws to protect intellectual property
rights. Demographics and trends will affect the diversity of instruments; sounds
and video will merge with music.
Art:
France was the center of the art world for a century. Around 1945, the U.S.
became the center. Jackson Pollack is the watershed. Even highly regarded European artists (David Hockney) have moved to the U.S. The U.S. will share dominance with a diffusion of art centers, London, Paris, New York, Singapore and
and Shanghai. Oil paintings may become a historical relic. Eclectic is and will
remain in. The old tests of what is good versus bad art will continue to fade.
Grandma Moses did not start to paint until she was in her 70s and she is considered a primitivist. Fashions will continue to change: shock is in, it is out, Andy Warhol is in, and he is out. Which of Rembrandt, Van Gogh, and Gauguin will survive? In the viewpoint of a famous art critic, Victor Meyen,"in 100 years art will be dead because it is almost dead today. So only hucksterism and hype (much like Andy Warhol's incredible self-promotion by being so enigmatic) will determine the good art from the bad."
Sports:
Existing team sports will become obsolete. When man can high jump 15 feet, run the 100 meters in 6 seconds, 1000 meters in 3 minutes, the public will lose interest. New forms of sport that combine physical ability and intelligence and the use of psychology will supplant current games. Already there are the beginnings of Orienting, Survival (television game) etc. Other sports, such as sailing, automobile racing, skiing, etc. become modified. Competition, teamwork and skill will remain. Also thrill seeking, at levels hard for us to comprehend, will stay.
Many major sports such as basketball, baseball, football and boxing either constrict or become changed beyond recognition. (2050 or later) The same will occur to most track and field events (22nd century). When someone high jumps 20 feet, the event loses public interest. Sports and competition survive. All accuracy games continue, for example, shooting, sailing, probably, soccer, archery etc. New games, which integrate mental skills, physical agility, teamwork and competitiveness, will take the place of today's sports. Music will expand with technology, new sounds and new instruments. It will become more varied than today and will integrate in forms with other art. Individual musical and artistic skills will become greatly enhanced and thus the average individual, rather than stars, will dominate the arts.
Chapter 11: EDUCATION
Schools and universities will routinely utilize computerized teaching programsand interactive television lectures. Laboratory work, both in science and the
humanities will remain at the school level. Public schools will fall further behind
private schools. They either are not interested in achievement or define
achievement by testing. Both fail, since the winners are: (1) information-access
and use and (2) problem solving capability. Public schools begin to be phased
out--already initiated. First schools to go will be in the larger cities. Leaders will
be Massachusetts, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. College
classes will become regular subject matters of the 10th grade. All children at private
schools will read 1000 words + per minute by the 10th grade.
Computers will be used extensively beginning in elementary schools. Books will become scarce and libraries eliminated thereby freeing large financial resources for databases and computers. Class size will be reduced. Laboratories will be small--12-15 children. Lectures will be to tens of thousands of students. The number of teachers will be reduced per student due to interactive lectures and use of computers. Laboratories will teach small group interaction, access and manipulation of data and exercises in problem solving. People will be trained in think at higher levels of thought. Learning will shift from ‘formal’ to ‘system’ orientation. Focus will include integration within systems of both innovative and analytical concepts. English becomes the language of higher education by 2025, high school education in the third world by2035-2050 and universal by 2075. School days will be lengthened and school will be 40-44 weeks annually.
Chapter 12. BEYOND 100 YEARS
The following are advances, which will occur primarily in the 22nd century and beyond. The 21st century will focus on eliminating genetic defects in the first half and slowing the aging process in the 2nd half. There will also be major advances in fighting heart and artery diseases and cancer. Longevity will run up against a wall until the process of aging can be slowed down or halted and in the long term even reversed.
Some of the areas of the body that can be enhanced include:
A Senses
B Digestive track
C. Back up systems and regeneration
d. Organs and limbs
e. Modification of man for different environments from water to space
f. Brain
A. The senses:
Restrictions that man has that some other animals, reptiles, fish or birds do not have include:
2. Eyes: Man cannot see in the dark. The increase of the spectrum of radiation to which the eye is sensitive would enhance nighttime vision. The elimination of near sighted persons will occur in the 21st century. However, the eyes can be modified so that they increased capacity similar to a telescope or even ex-ray vision.
B. The digestive tract
The digestive tract is one of the least properly designed systems within the body. We have 7 meters of intestine, although we need only 1 meter. We cannot digest many food products, e.g. cellulose. The large intestine stores useless material to be eliminated. Its importance could be reduced if we were able to digest more food. One solution would be the ability to produce new enzymes that break down molecules such as cellulose. This methodology could assist in the design of human beings to adapt to new environments on other planets. (You will find out that there will emerge variations of new human beings each designed to cope with varying environments.) This already exists in man through natural selection where man near the equator is darker to protect the body from sunlight, in sandy areas the eyes are modified for protection from sand and sun, and some races have great ability of storing fat to protect against famine.
C. Back up systems and regeneration
Biosensors may allow for direct communication between the brain and the
computer. Biosensors are already being used in pacemakers.
D. Organs and limbs: Another possibility is the regeneration of limbs and organs as exhibited by earthworms. Animals that regenerate are relatively simple ones, e.g. some salamanders can re-grow lost limps, lizards can shed their tails; however there is limited regenerating ability in birds or mammals. An exception is young children can regenerate fingertips, but not fingers. Once scientists understand the mechanisms that switch genes on and off, the regenerations of parts becomes feasible, e.g. eyes, ears, arms and legs.
E. Modification of man from different environments from water to space (see chapter 13).
F. Brain (Scientific American (September 2003)) New drugs will stimulate the brain to replace its own cells. This will assist patients with various brain disorders and with brain or spinal cord injuries. New stem cells can be used in brain-repair strategies. There are two types of these stem cells, primordial cells left over from early embryonic development and human embryonic stem cells. Brain cell and neural advances may assist in fighting: depression, Huntington’s disease, brain tumors and stroke, Parkinson’s disease, spinal cord injuries, and multiple sclerosis. Not only will we be better able to combat brain diseases, but we will be able to enhance brain functions. Memory will clearly be enhanced. If one person has a photographic memory, some day all persons will have a photographic memory. If one person has an IQ of 140 then all people can have an IQ of 140. And then if one person has an IQ of 180 then all persons will have an IQ of 180. IQ will increase 5-10 points per century. TMS (transcranial magnetic stimulation), which utilizes tiny electric currents to stimulate the brain may well replace or supplement drugs to stimulate brain activity. There are a wide variety of electromagnetic brain-stimulation techniques, which are at varying states of development. It is quite clear that psychological disorders such as schizophrenia, psychosis, manic depression, paranoia etc. will disappear.
Finally can the brain be enhanced? There is no reason to believe this is not the case. Brain enhancement will be at multi-levels and disciplines, for example, cognitive, memory, commutative, artistic, etc. The sky is the limit.
Chapter 13: FUTURE MAN (SUPERION)
Homo Sapiens will be replaced by multiple species adapted to live in a variety of environments and with different talents, abilities and physical attributes. Future man will be the great explorer, roaming the universe, and settling the planets of various stars. The ability to do this will require a Future Man (Superion) differing from us physically and mentally. This will tap the scientific abilities for centuries in the development of Superion.
It is far more likely that we will discover other forms of life through exploration than the reverse, that other forms of life will discover us. From the earth, man-evolved species will roam and settle the universe. Where and whither they meet with other living beings is a matter of speculation.
In earlier chapters we suggested how man could adapt to living in space, water and other environments. It does not take much imagination to visualize where technology is so advanced that even greater modifications of future man can be made to fit other worlds’ environments.
'Time' in our vast universe represents an unconquerable hurdle. What are the limits? Even time cannot give us a clue. What is clear is that future species of man will be more different from us than we are from the Neanderthal.
Superion will have a higher IQ than Homo Sapiens. Average intelligence will be at least 50 points higher. Post Superions may add an additional 50 points. Superion will eliminate defective genes causing mental, physical and medical problems. When essentially you can order offspring with specified physical and mental capabilities, the issues of today will appear meaningless.
Are there limits to the ability of man to survive? Certainly. Black and white holes, time, suns and maybe man himself. Are there limits to man’s abilities? Man will be able to change the weather. Will he be able to change continental drift, construct planets, and modify suns? Man probably learns to tame hurricanes and tornadoes, but will he be able to stop volcanoes and earthquakes?
My story "The Last Anglo in Los Angeles" concerned a priest and a rabbi having lunch at Cantor’s each wanting the other to attend their service. They both got permission to do so. However, at lunch a week later the priest told the rabbi he would not attend Temple since he was being transferred and the rabbi thus became the last Anglo in Los Angeles.
Chapter 14: SCENARIOS
A. 2050: Expected scenario 80%; pessimistic scenario 20%
Wars, terrorism and murder will result in less than one in 1000 dying during the 50-year period. A breakdown in economic conditions, a battle between poor countries and rich ones or outright conditions of nuclear, biological or other terrorist acts could result in one in 100 dying. This compares with decimation of many countries during world Wars I and II and even greater losses of life during the Black Plague.
There will be no major worldwide depressions. Economic growth averages 3/year +/- 1%. The developing world exceeds the underdeveloped world and economic growth occurs through most of Asia and Latin America. Africa lags behind. Downsize risks occur if free trade is halted, nationalism results in conflicts, the Middle East explodes or the Christian and Moslem worlds coalesce into separate camps. Power excesses by major developed countries could also cause major setbacks. A 3.0 percent increase in GNP worldwide would quadruple worldwide GNP by 2050. As China, India and Eastern Europe become developing countries, they become stakeholders in world peace and economic stability. GNP growth is inversely related to war, terrorism and instability. The developing world very likely takes the lead in the United Nations responding swiftly to political and military instability that threatens regional or world stability.
Major breakthroughs in medicine cure AIDS; reduce middle age (55-70) heart and stroke, and many types of cancer become susceptible to early diagnosis and treatment. Major inroads will be made against diabetes, and other genetic diseases. The downside in this area is new viruses and biological terror.
Urban centers with 10 million or more persons will peak during this century. Most of the mega cities are in developing countries: Beijing, Shanghai, Bombay, New Dehli, Calcutta, Manila, Jakarta, Cairo, Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Moscow. In the developed world major hubs include: London, New York, Chicago, San Francisco/Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, Tokyo/Kyoto and Seoul. Other major European centers in the 5-10 million range include Paris, Berlin, Rome, and Madrid etc. The key factor in the developed world centers is the strong historical preservation and renovation of the central city for mixed residential and commercial use. Mega centers will be an intermediate trend since cost advantages will decline with technology.
B. 2100 Scenarios: Expected 60%, Optimistic, 30%, Pessimistic, 10%
Major planned new cities are being constructed in the 250,000-1 million population range. These cities integrate education, business and residential uses and are very high tech centers. These centers are being developed on the east coast of China, west coast of United States and along the Mediterranean in Europe. There is also the construction of similar centers, but more expensive, within the world’s major metropolitan areas, e.g., Boston, San Francisco Bay, London, Japan, Shanghai, Sao Paulo to name some.
The great Universities focus no longer on undergraduates or graduate students, but postgraduates and research. The university and business become aligned and integrated. The great universities will teach in English, even in China. The United States will no longer dominate the top universities with the center of learning shifting to east Asia.
The role of the United Nations increases dramatically as do regional governments. Concomitantly national governments power and budgets shrink. Decision-making is delegated more to the local level.
Social Security, minimum wage, food stamps and welfare are abolished in
developing countries. Vouchers provide for health care and education. The best
institutions will remain highly competitive; however, educational achievement
will be easier to obtain because of information and education methods. The major
differences in universities will be their research role and ability to integrate with
the business and research communities effectively. Businesses will locate where
the Universities are strongest and vice-versa.
In the optimistic scenario, the life span continues to grow at the 20th century rate;
minimal wars, economic growth expands to Africa and most of the world is either
developed or developing after 2050. Nationalism begins to decline and a strong
international commitment to peace is made by all significant nations. Economic
growth occurs 1/2 to 1% faster than expected. World population is forecast to
peak in the 22nd century and population is declining in a significant number of countries.
In the pessimistic scenario, there is much that could occur: many and major wars,
significant warming of the world and economic catastrophe, biological and or nuclear terror etc. The world shows its inability to cooperate and put an end to these major
threats. Economic growth is 1/2 to 1% slower than expected. Death rates are up to 10
times greater than the expected scenario from war, terror and crime. In the pessimistic
scenario, the evil forces terrorize the forces of progress. These terrorist forces could be
the strongest military and economic countries in the world. There is precedent for this
historically, where the reactionary forces in the name of religion, Communism, Fascism
or Democracy, behave as the anti-Christ.
Time Elements:
A. 100 years--economic, environmental, social and political trends can be predicted. Technology can be hypothesized, but not projected. When and at what rate are fossil fuels reduced? Population peaks by the end of 22nd century, but in the developed world, before the end of the 21st century. International peace or terror? Peace dictated via satellites or not? Has the aging process become modified and if so to what extent? Are people being created who are more intelligent or capable and if so to what extent? When do temperatures of the world peak, probably in 200-300 years?
B. 300 years--difficult to project economic and social trends. Technology changes become conjectural. Environmental and political scenarios can be developed. Weather will be controlled worldwide, but not locally. Ocean currents are impacted. Antarctica remains frozen, but sheet ice will be reduced.
C. 1000 years--projections fall apart except for geology, space and some sciences.
Some scenarios can be devised with the following variables: contact with or not with more intelligent beings; man living primarily on earth or beyond; advanced capability of next level of man; forces of evil thrust world into dark ages; etc.
D. 10,000-1,000,000 years--Issues include can we physically move and separate continents? Are we resource dependent on outer space? Are there any limits placed on the evolution of man, e.g. must man remain the same species or are new species evolved. Man differs from the chimpanzee by only 2% of DNA. Most economic, social and political issues become irrelevant by this time frame. Some environmental issues remain. Are limits placed on the rate of change? What are the rules concerning integrating beings and knowledge from other universes? Will there be universal laws?
Chapter 15: AREAS BEYOND MANS ABILITY
1. Time travel*
2. Meeting extra terrestrials*
3. Creation of new stars
4. Extra sensory perception
5. Recovery of matter from black holes
6. Traveling at speeds in excess of speed of light
7. Discovery of other or parallel universes
* controversial
BIBLIOGRAPHY & ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The following persons contributed ideas and assistance to specific chapters.
Chapter
2. Guardian, Ian Sample
8. Dr. Harvey Mayer
9. Victor Meyen
13. Lucas Commons and Dr. Michael Commons
Bibliography
Introduction
Reconstructing Proto-Nostratic, Allan Bomhard
Harvey Mayer, Linguistics and editing
Methodology
Guided Technology Evolution, Victor R. Fey and Eugene I. Rivin (1999), www.triz-journal.com/archives
TRIZ in Guided Technology Evolution, Genrikh Altshuller (1999)
Chapter 1.
Various climate models (Canadian, NCAR, etc.)
Climatic History and the Future, H.H. Lamb
Terry Joyce Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, 2003
Chapter 2.
OdysseauTech "Technical Systems Transitions
Future of Flight, Popular Science, 2003
Chapter 3.
Dr. Russ R. Chianelli "Materials Challenges for the Next Century:
Lucas and Michael Commons "The Speciation of Superions from Humans"
Better Brains, Scientific American, September 2003
David Fuchs (dfuchs@walrus.com)
Chapter 4.
GENC2001: "Introduction to Australian Economy"
Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener, “The Year 2000”, 1967
The Economist, April 1, 2006, p. 84
Chapter 6.
Chapter 7.
J.B.S. Haldane
Chapter 8.
Dr. Edward Sapir, "Language"
Chapter 8 Kelly Starks “Propulsion Systems” biblio.org/lunar/school/interstellar/Status_Report/Stardrives.html
Chapter 9
Daniel Schrag and Jonathan Shaw, Harvard Magazine, June 2006
Geoffrey Commons,”Adequate and Affordable Energy”, California Energy Commission
Chapter 13.
Dr. Michael Commons "Four Postformal Stages", in Handbook of Adult Development, J. Demick.